30 Sep 2020 Updated 15 May 2022
current March 2020 low Equity valuation: 33/82-83 week first and second fractal series ...
limited ...
I am riding on a limited express, one of the crack trains of the nation. Hurtling across the prairie into blue haze and dark air go fifteen all-steel coaches holding a thousand people. (All the coaches shall be scrap and rust and all the men and women laughing in the diners and sleepers shall pass to ashes.) I ask a man in the smoker where he is going and he answers: "Omaha."
Carl Sandburg
the US January-April 2022 annualized 7.5-8.3 % consumer inflation rate has slowly resulted in the Federal Reserve Bank's slow response of money tightening By prime rate increases and more rapidly by the Reserve's controlled US ten Year note and 30 year Bond Rate increases. These rates have shut down the majority population of possible resdential mortgagees. (The ten year Note touched 3.3% on 9 may 2022 and Avergae 30 year mortgage rate 5.6+%, higher than All post-bubble March 2009 -2022 mortgage rates. This Central Bank tightening pushes AgainsT the Great inflationary force created by the 20022asset part of the asset-debt system both as the result of outright money printing And by the central bank's underwriting of mortgage backed securities resulting in 'Transient' 2-3 percent mortgage rates, creating a 20-40 percent appreciation of existing homes over the last 24 months. This Excessive residential inflation, The supply chain availabilty contraction, End Fossil fuel availability, And anticipatory grain shortages and fossil fuel shortages From the Russia's unjustifiable war, Have pushed Price inceases, particularly food and rental increase. At current second mortagae rates, homeowners will not use the equity in their Homes over the next Year to extract the gained equity from their residentials to keep up with inflation. And, the greatest worrisome part of the global asset-debt macroeconomic system is the Chinese property bubble and the corporate builder debt which is imploding and will destroy both those corporations and the average Chinese citizen’s basis for wealth. Since November 2021 the earlier 20 months of global Covid historically unparalled deficit spending and money creation has caused painful inflation in commodity prices, affecting the system's pyramid base consumer, more so than the price elevations in global equity markets. There has been a divergence over the last few months with composite commodity prices increasing by 20 percent while global equities have lost 20 percent. the monthly delta between the CRB valuation growth and composite equity Decline is a relative 40 percent. with energy and grain supply shortages caused by ongoing covid Issues, Russian nationalism, and End fossil fuel availability, It will take months even with the reatively high interest rates to engineer a demand dependent recession to control prices.
It should be evident from the ubiqious recurrent time ordered fractal patterns that the asset debt system system is a self-ordering system and has the patterned characteristics of a hard science.
Going forward during the next 54 years of the US hegemonic grand Fourth fractal (36/90/90/54 years) The great rub and conundrum for monetary policy decision makers is found in the current microcosm of the CRB vice composite equities since August 2021. During this time The CRB index had risen by over 20 percent while the wilshire valuation has remained about neutral as of 25 february 2022. Keeping interest rates too low to control crb related inflation has resulted and will result in further valuation increases of the CRB girectly hurting consumers, the base of the asset-debt macroeconomic system pyramid. On the other hand, Just the threat of raising rates has dampened composite equity prices and will nonlinearly prick the equity bubble at the termnal portion of the 70 week second fractal for western and nikkei composite equities. The end game for the 2021-2074 54 year fourth grand fractal for the US hegemony is that further money creation and near negative or negative interest rates will be needed to service the accumulated debt load and maintain social programs. This will cause inflation at the consumer level for the large base of the working population. those competing parameters will be the 54 year conundrum rub for central banks and politicians controlling future monetary policy. This conundrum will likely lead to the complete globalization of authoritarian governments. China's massive debt and its base population's wealth in a superbubbleD de facto pyramid real Estate scheme is arguably the most important issue for a linear continuatioN of the global macroeconomy status quo. As a representative proxy, The Chinese Investment and Finance Group LTD (HK:1226) recovered from a lost of 99.5% from its high in 2010 to a loss of only ... 99%.(a relative 100% gain from its low). those relative gains In the last few trading days have been reduced by 40-45%. The Chinese real estate property super bubble is in serious trouble. The patterned and self ordered mathematical science of The Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system. 1807-november 2021: the US hegemony's 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum self-assembly ASSET valuation growth (relative to its maximum accummulation of bad debt) THE UNITED STATES' 1932-2021 90 YEAR GREAT THIRD FRACTAL PEAK valuation AND NONLINEAR CRASH: 1932 first subfractal: 11/22/21-22 years with a second subfractal series of 13/29 years :: x/2-2.5x starting in 1982. The Wilshire Total US Market PEAK VALUATION at 48,95251 (nearly 49)trillion dollars occurred on 8 November 2021. From the March 2009 low to the Nov 2021 peak valuation the asset- debt macroeconomic system self assembled its valuation growth into 3/6/6 years :: 31/62/62 months :: A x/2x/2x fractal series. This elegantly simple mathematical pattern is consistent with the system's efficient self assembly growth laws. See BELOW the 1807 215 year United States Maximal x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 year three phase Great Fractal growth mathematical self assembly series For the asset Debt macroeconomic system. Modified from the 2005 original 'the economic fractalist' website. Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of deterministic cause-and-effect ASSET-Debt Saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and MAcroeconomic cycles is both deterministic and quantitative. Asset Valuations Grow and Decay in a Self-Assembly, self-organizing fashion conforming to Quantitative and elegantly simple mathematical fractal patterns which can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. this site is not to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool.
Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by the expansion of debt. SINCE 1982 the US, the current global macroeconomic hegemony, has USED the tool of cascadingly lowering of interest rates to maintain the illusion of balance between outstanding Debt and social contract obligations and its ability to pay those debts from its relatively weakening GDP percentage-wise TAX Base. Lowering nominal interest rates below asset inflation controlling rates leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This expansion engenders forward consumption, OVERPRODUCTION, overownership, asset overvaluation and finally consumer saturation at peak asset valuations. With the addition of ongoing wages and total employment of the consumer masses, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic ASSET overValuation, bad Debt liquidation, and excessive Wage and employment numbers relative to asset devaluation and comsumption will self correct. Years OF US Historical Peak saturation valuations - followed by nonlinear valuation collapses and nadirs: 1807-09; 1837-43; 1857-58; 1873-77; 1893-97; 1907-09; 1920-21; 1929 -June 1932; 1973-74; 2000-2003; 2007-march 2009; feb 2020-March 2020; January-February 2022 and Oct-nov 2022. IN THE EARLY 2000'S UNREGULATED FINANCIAL ENGINEERING in the Western sphere and easy credit in the eastern sphere ENGENDERED Global HISTORICAL real estate OVERVALUATION. The Chinese Shanghai has not rEcovered to its 2008 real-estate based and overvalued peak. a recent 2020-21 80-90 % collapse of much of the chinese real estate equity sector shows the residual fragilty and continued correction of the 2008 overvaluation and overproduced peak. Since late 2008 NOVEL MONEY CREATION in the west HAS BEEN NECESSARY TO SUPPORT that global 2007-2009 consumer-held Asset valuation collapse associated with A FAILING AND UNBALANCED ASSET-DEBT MACROECNOMIC SYSTEM. in August 2019 And before the pandemic German 30 year bonds in a tale-tell fashion yielded for the first time negative interest rates. SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF property and Equity VALUATIONS IN 2009, An easily recognizable BLOW-OFF pattern IN THE GROWTH OF Equity ASSET VALUATIONS (and in 2021 real estate) HAS BEEN GENERATED BY The ex-nihilo MONEY CREATION BY The US CENTRAL BANK to buy US Debt and mortagage backEd securites to shore-up the unbalanced ASSET-debt system. THIS money creation is divorced FROM HISTORICAL MONEY BORROWING based on the Existing wealth of private sources. This is beyond fractional reserve Bank lending. The excess money creation has directly caused the inflation of commodities. commodity valuations have temporarily risen above the the 2008-2019 CRB falling trendline, causing real pain for the worker base population. as WELL, INSTEAD OF INCENTIVIZING AMERICAN CORPORATIONS TO USE PROFITS FACILITATED BY THAT novelly MANUFACTURED MONEY AND LOWERED INTEREST RATES TO RECLAIM AMERICAN MANFACTURING AND INDUSTRIES REPRESENTED BY THE CONTENTS OF TRANSOCEANIC CONTAINERS, AMERICAN CORPORTATIONS HAVE BEEN perversely INCENTiVIZED TO USE PROFITS, further increased by LOWERED and historically low CORPORATE TAXES, FOR STOCK BUY BACKS, further INFLATING EQUITY VALUATIONS and the paper asset wealth of individual corporate board members. IN A SCALAR FRACTAL MANNER Market ASSETs GROW TO an overvaluation saturation Area and Thereafter Decay in a nonlinear fashion and correct to lower saturation points. time unit Cyclical self-similar fractal patterns can readily be identified in valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The shorter time unit fractal patterns Correspond to the largest yearly scale that represents the underlying Mathematical growth and decay Quantitative Fractal order of the asset-debt macroeconomic system. transitional asymptotes of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves, often nonlinear in nature, which bring market valuations to nadir levels where NET buyers reenter the market and net growth begins.
The asset debt macroeconomic system's two composite simple growth and decay asset valuation mathematical ordered fractal patterns are: X/2-2.5X/2-2.5Xy/1.5-1.6y : a four phase fractal series and x/2-2.5xy/1.5 -2.5xy : A three phase fractal series X = y = xy as fractal time unit (hours, days, weeks et. al.) x represents growth y represents decay xy represents peak growth and/or (nonlinear)decay From the 2005 The Econmic Fractalist website: The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. These regular, simple, and ordered mathematHical fractal patterns confer the status of a science on the SELF-ASSEMBLY ORDERED us and global ASSET-Debt macroeconomic system THE US ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM IS self organizing and CONFORMING TO A X/2.5X/2.5X/1.5X GREAT FRACTAL SERIES. A MAXIMUM GROWTH PATTERN OF 36/90/90 YEARS COMMENCED IN 1807 WITH great NADIRS of ASSET VALUATIONS IN 1842/43 AND 1932 AND A FINAL 90 YEAR EQUITY ASSET PEAK VALUATION IN November 2021. For the largest US Equity Wilshire worth 48- 49 trillion dollars. this occured 8 November 2021 with a peak valuation of 48.95251 trillion. For the Nasdaq peak valuation occurred at 16,212.2288 on 22 NOVEMBER 2021. The SPX peaked on 4 jan 2022 with a three day average peak at the end of December 2021. THE 13 YEAR BLOW-OFF PEAK EQUITY ASSET VALUATION OCCURRING FROM 2009 TO 2021 HAS BEEN PRINCIPALLY CAUSED BY UNPRECEDENTED MONEY EXPANSION BY NECESSARY MANUFACTURED LOW-INTEREST-RATES MADE POSSIBLE BY THE INFUSION OF EX-NIHILO-MONEY CREATION BY GOLBAL CENTRAL BANKS AND SUPPORTED BY SOVEREIGNS. THIS MONEY CREATION AND EXTREME LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT WAS REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN A SYSTEM WHERE THE ACCUMULATED DEBT AND ACCUMULATED SOCIAL CONTRACT SPENDING WERE PROGRESSIVELY DISCONNECTED FROM THE ECONOMIC BASE GNP AND WORKER MASSES ongoing wages. THE 1807 CYCLICAL three phase maximum growth FRACTAL Series HISTORY OF THE x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 year RISE to the November 2021 48.95 trillion dollar wilshire 5000 peak asset valuation representing THE US HEGEMONY
US INIATING FRACTAL 1790/92-1807 16-18 YEARSUS FIRST GREAT FRACTAL. 1807-1842/43 36-37 YEARSUS SECOND GREAT FRACTAL 1842/43-1932 90 YEARSUS THIRD GREAT FRACTAL 1932- Nov 2021 90 years (wilshire peak) US Four Great fractal 2021-2074 54 years US THIRD 1ST SUBFRACTAL 1932-1982 51 YEARS 11-/21-22/21 YEARS US THIRD 2ND SUBFRACTAL to wilshire 2021 peak 40 years 13/28 years to 202`1 peak valuation 40 years EXPECTED US 4TH xy DECAY FRACTAL Nov 2021-2074 54 YEARS (From 8 November 2021 49 Trillion wilshire peak valuation) Complete 1807 US Great four phase Fractal Series : 36/90/90/54 years. A Possible interpolated fractal sequence from 1982: 13//28 to 29 of 29-33 // 33//20} years for the completion of the expected US 54 year 4th great fractal. The 1982 13 year sequence is composed of a 3/7/5 year fractal series from 1982 to 1994. The 1994 current 29 year second fractal series with the 1982 13 year first fractal base is composed of two subfractls: 3/7/8 years ending in 2009 and a 3/6/7 year series with a peak wilshire valuation in 3/6/6 years november 2021. The completed 3/6/7 year fractal series may be 3/6/7/(4) years. 4/8 =11 year first fractal base: 11/22/22 years = 53 years (54 years from the wilshire Nov 2021 peak valuation)
FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOW: THE THIRD SUBFRACTAL OF THE US THIRD 40 YEAR 2ND SUBFRACTAL for the US spx: FIRST SUBFRACTAL 'A' SERIES
A 5/12-13/10/7 32 MONTHS SECOND SUBFRACTAL B SERIES: B1 3/8/6 15 MONTHS B2 8/17/16/(10) 48 MONTHS (10 month upgoing) The ECB poured 2.6 trillion Euro in the Euro economy 2015-2018 with a surge after the announceD plan and of the brexit vote and again after the actual vot. B fractal series 62 months late 2015 Announcement of planned 2016 brexit referendum Third SUbfractal series c1 8/20/16 42 months. c2a 2/4/4 8 months c2b1/2 6/12 months or 17 months: the 12 monthsecond subfractal is composed of a 3/6/5 month series with nob 2021, the wilshire's peak at month 2 of the final 5 month series. c2b3 = c3 10 months part of c2b {(6/12)/10}} series and c2 8/17/10 series c fractal series to November 2021 peak 62 months C2 series 8/20/13 months Total series since MarcH 2009: 31/62-63/62 (peak) 0f 68 to 80 months. :: x/2x/2-2.5xy fractal series (Wilshire Peak valuation at month 62 on nov 8 2021 for the third 2xy fractal with a 1982 13/29 year :: x/2-2.5x massive nonlinear 29 year second fractal decline on 17 February 2022 2022 and with An expected final low October/november 2022) China's Shanghai composite: the 1994 29 year second fractal for the nascent shanghai composite second fractal is composed of two fractal subseries of 3/7/4 years starting 1994 and 3/7/6/5 years the latter starting in 2005. on 16 October 2007 the shanghai reached a valuation of nearly 6100, dependent on facilitated massive debt expansion by the chinese central bank, overproduction and overvaluation in the real estate sector and in the high speed rail sector. During the Subsequent 14 years that peak 6100 valuation has not been exceeded with a shanghai comp Jan 2022 average valuation of about 3500. in the last year bad debt, new construction restrictions, and Previous overproduction and overvaluation in the chinese property sector has resulted in a 90 percent devaluation in some its major property equities, EG, evergrande. On 9 December, 2021 Fitch stated that evergrande had missed its interest payments (after the month grace period) and officially defaulted on its debt. The coming nonlinear fall in the US hegemony Equity valuations will be mirrored throughout the eastern and Western world's equities. More than any other time in history, The asset Debt macroeconomy is globally linked and interdependent. the final daily seres for evergrange is 18/42/42 of 43-45 days. G. Lammert. updated 15 May 2022
the US January-April 2022 annualized 7.5-8.3 % consumer inflation rate has slowly resulted in the Federal Reserve Bank's slow response of money tightening By prime rate increases and more rapidly by the Reserve's controlled US ten Year note and 30 year Bond Rate increases. These rates have shut down the majority population of possible resdential mortgagees. (The ten year Note touched 3.3% on 9 may 2022 and Avergae 30 year mortgage rate 5.6+%, higher than All post-bubble March 2009 -2022 mortgage rates. This Central Bank tightening pushes AgainsT the Great inflationary force created by the 20022asset part of the asset-debt system both as the result of outright money printing And by the central bank's underwriting of mortgage backed securities resulting in 'Transient' 2-3 percent mortgage rates, creating a 20-40 percent appreciation of existing homes over the last 24 months. This Excessive residential inflation, The supply chain availabilty contraction, End Fossil fuel availability, And anticipatory grain shortages and fossil fuel shortages From the Russia's unjustifiable war, Have pushed Price inceases, particularly food and rental increase. At current second mortagae rates, homeowners will not use the equity in their Homes over the next Year to extract the gained equity from their residentials to keep up with inflation. And, the greatest worrisome part of the global asset-debt macroeconomic system is the Chinese property bubble and the corporate builder debt which is imploding and will destroy both those corporations and the average Chinese citizen’s basis for wealth. Since November 2021 the earlier 20 months of global Covid historically unparalled deficit spending and money creation has caused painful inflation in commodity prices, affecting the system's pyramid base consumer, more so than the price elevations in global equity markets. There has been a divergence over the last few months with composite commodity prices increasing by 20 percent while global equities have lost 20 percent. the monthly delta between the CRB valuation growth and composite equity Decline is a relative 40 percent. with energy and grain supply shortages caused by ongoing covid Issues, Russian nationalism, and End fossil fuel availability, It will take months even with the reatively high interest rates to engineer a demand dependent recession to control prices.
It should be evident from the ubiqious recurrent time ordered fractal patterns that the asset debt system system is a self-ordering system and has the patterned characteristics of a hard science.
Going forward during the next 54 years of the US hegemonic grand Fourth fractal (36/90/90/54 years) The great rub and conundrum for monetary policy decision makers is found in the current microcosm of the CRB vice composite equities since August 2021. During this time The CRB index had risen by over 20 percent while the wilshire valuation has remained about neutral as of 25 february 2022. Keeping interest rates too low to control crb related inflation has resulted and will result in further valuation increases of the CRB girectly hurting consumers, the base of the asset-debt macroeconomic system pyramid. On the other hand, Just the threat of raising rates has dampened composite equity prices and will nonlinearly prick the equity bubble at the termnal portion of the 70 week second fractal for western and nikkei composite equities. The end game for the 2021-2074 54 year fourth grand fractal for the US hegemony is that further money creation and near negative or negative interest rates will be needed to service the accumulated debt load and maintain social programs. This will cause inflation at the consumer level for the large base of the working population. those competing parameters will be the 54 year conundrum rub for central banks and politicians controlling future monetary policy. This conundrum will likely lead to the complete globalization of authoritarian governments. China's massive debt and its base population's wealth in a superbubbleD de facto pyramid real Estate scheme is arguably the most important issue for a linear continuatioN of the global macroeconomy status quo. As a representative proxy, The Chinese Investment and Finance Group LTD (HK:1226) recovered from a lost of 99.5% from its high in 2010 to a loss of only ... 99%.(a relative 100% gain from its low). those relative gains In the last few trading days have been reduced by 40-45%. The Chinese real estate property super bubble is in serious trouble. The patterned and self ordered mathematical science of The Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system. 1807-november 2021: the US hegemony's 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum self-assembly ASSET valuation growth (relative to its maximum accummulation of bad debt) THE UNITED STATES' 1932-2021 90 YEAR GREAT THIRD FRACTAL PEAK valuation AND NONLINEAR CRASH: 1932 first subfractal: 11/22/21-22 years with a second subfractal series of 13/29 years :: x/2-2.5x starting in 1982. The Wilshire Total US Market PEAK VALUATION at 48,95251 (nearly 49)trillion dollars occurred on 8 November 2021. From the March 2009 low to the Nov 2021 peak valuation the asset- debt macroeconomic system self assembled its valuation growth into 3/6/6 years :: 31/62/62 months :: A x/2x/2x fractal series. This elegantly simple mathematical pattern is consistent with the system's efficient self assembly growth laws. See BELOW the 1807 215 year United States Maximal x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 year three phase Great Fractal growth mathematical self assembly series For the asset Debt macroeconomic system. Modified from the 2005 original 'the economic fractalist' website. Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of deterministic cause-and-effect ASSET-Debt Saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and MAcroeconomic cycles is both deterministic and quantitative. Asset Valuations Grow and Decay in a Self-Assembly, self-organizing fashion conforming to Quantitative and elegantly simple mathematical fractal patterns which can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. this site is not to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool.
Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by the expansion of debt. SINCE 1982 the US, the current global macroeconomic hegemony, has USED the tool of cascadingly lowering of interest rates to maintain the illusion of balance between outstanding Debt and social contract obligations and its ability to pay those debts from its relatively weakening GDP percentage-wise TAX Base. Lowering nominal interest rates below asset inflation controlling rates leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This expansion engenders forward consumption, OVERPRODUCTION, overownership, asset overvaluation and finally consumer saturation at peak asset valuations. With the addition of ongoing wages and total employment of the consumer masses, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic ASSET overValuation, bad Debt liquidation, and excessive Wage and employment numbers relative to asset devaluation and comsumption will self correct. Years OF US Historical Peak saturation valuations - followed by nonlinear valuation collapses and nadirs: 1807-09; 1837-43; 1857-58; 1873-77; 1893-97; 1907-09; 1920-21; 1929 -June 1932; 1973-74; 2000-2003; 2007-march 2009; feb 2020-March 2020; January-February 2022 and Oct-nov 2022. IN THE EARLY 2000'S UNREGULATED FINANCIAL ENGINEERING in the Western sphere and easy credit in the eastern sphere ENGENDERED Global HISTORICAL real estate OVERVALUATION. The Chinese Shanghai has not rEcovered to its 2008 real-estate based and overvalued peak. a recent 2020-21 80-90 % collapse of much of the chinese real estate equity sector shows the residual fragilty and continued correction of the 2008 overvaluation and overproduced peak. Since late 2008 NOVEL MONEY CREATION in the west HAS BEEN NECESSARY TO SUPPORT that global 2007-2009 consumer-held Asset valuation collapse associated with A FAILING AND UNBALANCED ASSET-DEBT MACROECNOMIC SYSTEM. in August 2019 And before the pandemic German 30 year bonds in a tale-tell fashion yielded for the first time negative interest rates. SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF property and Equity VALUATIONS IN 2009, An easily recognizable BLOW-OFF pattern IN THE GROWTH OF Equity ASSET VALUATIONS (and in 2021 real estate) HAS BEEN GENERATED BY The ex-nihilo MONEY CREATION BY The US CENTRAL BANK to buy US Debt and mortagage backEd securites to shore-up the unbalanced ASSET-debt system. THIS money creation is divorced FROM HISTORICAL MONEY BORROWING based on the Existing wealth of private sources. This is beyond fractional reserve Bank lending. The excess money creation has directly caused the inflation of commodities. commodity valuations have temporarily risen above the the 2008-2019 CRB falling trendline, causing real pain for the worker base population. as WELL, INSTEAD OF INCENTIVIZING AMERICAN CORPORATIONS TO USE PROFITS FACILITATED BY THAT novelly MANUFACTURED MONEY AND LOWERED INTEREST RATES TO RECLAIM AMERICAN MANFACTURING AND INDUSTRIES REPRESENTED BY THE CONTENTS OF TRANSOCEANIC CONTAINERS, AMERICAN CORPORTATIONS HAVE BEEN perversely INCENTiVIZED TO USE PROFITS, further increased by LOWERED and historically low CORPORATE TAXES, FOR STOCK BUY BACKS, further INFLATING EQUITY VALUATIONS and the paper asset wealth of individual corporate board members. IN A SCALAR FRACTAL MANNER Market ASSETs GROW TO an overvaluation saturation Area and Thereafter Decay in a nonlinear fashion and correct to lower saturation points. time unit Cyclical self-similar fractal patterns can readily be identified in valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The shorter time unit fractal patterns Correspond to the largest yearly scale that represents the underlying Mathematical growth and decay Quantitative Fractal order of the asset-debt macroeconomic system. transitional asymptotes of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves, often nonlinear in nature, which bring market valuations to nadir levels where NET buyers reenter the market and net growth begins.
The asset debt macroeconomic system's two composite simple growth and decay asset valuation mathematical ordered fractal patterns are: X/2-2.5X/2-2.5Xy/1.5-1.6y : a four phase fractal series and x/2-2.5xy/1.5 -2.5xy : A three phase fractal series X = y = xy as fractal time unit (hours, days, weeks et. al.) x represents growth y represents decay xy represents peak growth and/or (nonlinear)decay From the 2005 The Econmic Fractalist website: The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. These regular, simple, and ordered mathematHical fractal patterns confer the status of a science on the SELF-ASSEMBLY ORDERED us and global ASSET-Debt macroeconomic system THE US ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM IS self organizing and CONFORMING TO A X/2.5X/2.5X/1.5X GREAT FRACTAL SERIES. A MAXIMUM GROWTH PATTERN OF 36/90/90 YEARS COMMENCED IN 1807 WITH great NADIRS of ASSET VALUATIONS IN 1842/43 AND 1932 AND A FINAL 90 YEAR EQUITY ASSET PEAK VALUATION IN November 2021. For the largest US Equity Wilshire worth 48- 49 trillion dollars. this occured 8 November 2021 with a peak valuation of 48.95251 trillion. For the Nasdaq peak valuation occurred at 16,212.2288 on 22 NOVEMBER 2021. The SPX peaked on 4 jan 2022 with a three day average peak at the end of December 2021. THE 13 YEAR BLOW-OFF PEAK EQUITY ASSET VALUATION OCCURRING FROM 2009 TO 2021 HAS BEEN PRINCIPALLY CAUSED BY UNPRECEDENTED MONEY EXPANSION BY NECESSARY MANUFACTURED LOW-INTEREST-RATES MADE POSSIBLE BY THE INFUSION OF EX-NIHILO-MONEY CREATION BY GOLBAL CENTRAL BANKS AND SUPPORTED BY SOVEREIGNS. THIS MONEY CREATION AND EXTREME LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT WAS REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN A SYSTEM WHERE THE ACCUMULATED DEBT AND ACCUMULATED SOCIAL CONTRACT SPENDING WERE PROGRESSIVELY DISCONNECTED FROM THE ECONOMIC BASE GNP AND WORKER MASSES ongoing wages. THE 1807 CYCLICAL three phase maximum growth FRACTAL Series HISTORY OF THE x/2.5x/2.5x :: 36/90/90 year RISE to the November 2021 48.95 trillion dollar wilshire 5000 peak asset valuation representing THE US HEGEMONY
US INIATING FRACTAL 1790/92-1807 16-18 YEARSUS FIRST GREAT FRACTAL. 1807-1842/43 36-37 YEARSUS SECOND GREAT FRACTAL 1842/43-1932 90 YEARSUS THIRD GREAT FRACTAL 1932- Nov 2021 90 years (wilshire peak) US Four Great fractal 2021-2074 54 years US THIRD 1ST SUBFRACTAL 1932-1982 51 YEARS 11-/21-22/21 YEARS US THIRD 2ND SUBFRACTAL to wilshire 2021 peak 40 years 13/28 years to 202`1 peak valuation 40 years EXPECTED US 4TH xy DECAY FRACTAL Nov 2021-2074 54 YEARS (From 8 November 2021 49 Trillion wilshire peak valuation) Complete 1807 US Great four phase Fractal Series : 36/90/90/54 years. A Possible interpolated fractal sequence from 1982: 13//28 to 29 of 29-33 // 33//20} years for the completion of the expected US 54 year 4th great fractal. The 1982 13 year sequence is composed of a 3/7/5 year fractal series from 1982 to 1994. The 1994 current 29 year second fractal series with the 1982 13 year first fractal base is composed of two subfractls: 3/7/8 years ending in 2009 and a 3/6/7 year series with a peak wilshire valuation in 3/6/6 years november 2021. The completed 3/6/7 year fractal series may be 3/6/7/(4) years. 4/8 =11 year first fractal base: 11/22/22 years = 53 years (54 years from the wilshire Nov 2021 peak valuation)
FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOW: THE THIRD SUBFRACTAL OF THE US THIRD 40 YEAR 2ND SUBFRACTAL for the US spx: FIRST SUBFRACTAL 'A' SERIES
A 5/12-13/10/7 32 MONTHS SECOND SUBFRACTAL B SERIES: B1 3/8/6 15 MONTHS B2 8/17/16/(10) 48 MONTHS (10 month upgoing) The ECB poured 2.6 trillion Euro in the Euro economy 2015-2018 with a surge after the announceD plan and of the brexit vote and again after the actual vot. B fractal series 62 months late 2015 Announcement of planned 2016 brexit referendum Third SUbfractal series c1 8/20/16 42 months. c2a 2/4/4 8 months c2b1/2 6/12 months or 17 months: the 12 monthsecond subfractal is composed of a 3/6/5 month series with nob 2021, the wilshire's peak at month 2 of the final 5 month series. c2b3 = c3 10 months part of c2b {(6/12)/10}} series and c2 8/17/10 series c fractal series to November 2021 peak 62 months C2 series 8/20/13 months Total series since MarcH 2009: 31/62-63/62 (peak) 0f 68 to 80 months. :: x/2x/2-2.5xy fractal series (Wilshire Peak valuation at month 62 on nov 8 2021 for the third 2xy fractal with a 1982 13/29 year :: x/2-2.5x massive nonlinear 29 year second fractal decline on 17 February 2022 2022 and with An expected final low October/november 2022) China's Shanghai composite: the 1994 29 year second fractal for the nascent shanghai composite second fractal is composed of two fractal subseries of 3/7/4 years starting 1994 and 3/7/6/5 years the latter starting in 2005. on 16 October 2007 the shanghai reached a valuation of nearly 6100, dependent on facilitated massive debt expansion by the chinese central bank, overproduction and overvaluation in the real estate sector and in the high speed rail sector. During the Subsequent 14 years that peak 6100 valuation has not been exceeded with a shanghai comp Jan 2022 average valuation of about 3500. in the last year bad debt, new construction restrictions, and Previous overproduction and overvaluation in the chinese property sector has resulted in a 90 percent devaluation in some its major property equities, EG, evergrande. On 9 December, 2021 Fitch stated that evergrande had missed its interest payments (after the month grace period) and officially defaulted on its debt. The coming nonlinear fall in the US hegemony Equity valuations will be mirrored throughout the eastern and Western world's equities. More than any other time in history, The asset Debt macroeconomy is globally linked and interdependent. the final daily seres for evergrange is 18/42/42 of 43-45 days. G. Lammert. updated 15 May 2022
From the 2005 TEF Website ...
The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.
G. Lammert
This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .
